Positioning Snapshot
is liquidity or tightening winning?
Upcoming Reports
auto · FRED release calendar
Macro Seasons
buy dips or sell rips?
| Season | Growth | Liquidity | Inflation | What leads | What to do |
|---|
Business Cycle
Key economic indicators and what they signal for markets — is the economy expanding or contracting?
Nonfarm Payrolls — monthly change
jobs added per month (K)
Fair Value Inflation Model
Projecting year-over-year inflation using rolling monthly averages. Pick a model, toggle headline vs core, choose a range.
Year-over-Year Inflation
actual vs projected · rolling monthly averages · — 2% targetMonth-over-Month Changes
historical monthly % changes
All Inflation Gauges
Liquidity
Is there enough money flowing to support asset prices? Two layers — the tide and the plumbing.
Structural — the tide
⚙️ Plumbing — leaks in the boat
short-term bank funding stress
SOFR − IORB Spread
bps · negative = healthy · positive = funding stress
Live Charts
native · Yahoo Finance + FRED · refreshed each build
Positioning
How to position based on the current data — read the signals together.
FX — First Signal
where capital flows first
Rates — Truth Layer
what the bond market believes
Volatility & Hard Assets
stress gauges + real-asset demand
Thesis Tracker
Mental Model — what each instrument is telling you
- 2Y Yield: belief in the Fed — where markets think rates go in 12-24 months.
- FX (DXY): the global vote on US policy and risk appetite.
- MOVE: bond-market stress — the VIX equivalent for rates and collateral.
- Gold: trust in the system — debasement and tail-risk hedge.
- Credit spreads: the price of confidence. Widening = liquidity leaving.
- SOFR−IORB: the plumbing. Positive = banks short reserves; positioning gets squeezed.
Structural Risk Monitor
Not a cycle clock — a map of where the financial system is structurally fragile right now.
Duration Risk
the real-rate path sets the regime
10Y Nominal · Real · Breakeven
%
Credit Risk
forced liquidations appear here first
Credit Spreads — HY · IG · CCC
OAS %
FX & Cross-Border
pressure valve for global imbalances
Dollar · EUR/USD · USD/MXN
normalized to 100
Cross-Asset Macro
SPX · UST 10Y · DXY — how the big three move together, and what's driving them.
Cross-Asset Correlations · rolling 21-day
Dominant Market Theme · first principal component
Rolling 21-day Correlations
SPX·UST10Y · SPX·DXY · UST10Y·DXY · — linkage
Regime Frequency
| Regime | Freq | Avg Dur | SPX +1d | UST10Y +1d | DXY +1d |
|---|
Your Weekly Macro Read
Four questions, five minutes — every Monday before you trade. Saved on this device.
Three-Lever Thesis
Playbook
Where macro meets your trading
- Wheel / puts: risk-on → sell puts aggressively on dips. Risk-off → widen strikes or sit out.
- Day trading: risk-on days trend better for longs. Watch SOFR−IORB for plumbing stress.
- Long-term holds: seasons tell you WHEN to add. Best entries in Winter panic or sentiment mismatches.
- Finding names: season → leading sectors → mispriced underperformers → buy the mismatch.
Identifying mismatches — the real edge
- Risk-on + sentiment bearish = underpriced. Buy the fear.
- Risk-on + sentiment euphoric = overpriced. Tighten stops.
- Risk-off + sentiment bullish = danger zone. Don't be a hero.
Resources